Brianna Rollins – 12.26 100H – AR

Posted In: Hurdles

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        rcfan2 on #18967

        Graph of Brianna’s Career performances (from Milesplit):

        Milesplit Graph

        Pretty impressive trend…

        Pretty sure the picture of her is from her Senior year in high school. Amazing transformation at Clemson.

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        Derrick Brito on #120419

        Very impressive.

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        rcfan2 on #120442

        American Record Holder and 2013 World Champion Brianna Rollin’s HS stats from DyeStat – https://parser.dyestat.com/search.jsp?athID=49536#.UhwM-z9rUQo

        While impressive (and probably incomplete), never would have guessed she would be running 12.26 in 2013 – after missing a year of college track (although she turned pro after the NCAA’s – I think she still had 1 year of eligibility left)… I’d assume she would have to have near 11 flat to 11.2 100m speed to run 12.26 (I couldn’t find any 100m times for her).

        Admittedly, my BS meter continues to twitch…

        Sally (McLellan) Pearson – 12.28 100H has ran a personal best of 11.14 in the 100m. Pearson ran a 11.91 100m as a 15 year old and was down to 11.40 100m as an 18 year old. So she was a pretty capable flat sprinter as a teenager.

        She ran a best of 13.30 in the 100H as an 18 year old (far better than Rollin’s 13.83 at 18). At 21 (Rollin’s age when she set the American record), Pearson had worked herself down to 12.71 (she ran her 11.14 at 21).

        From 18 to 21 years of age – Pearson improved from 13.30 to 12.71 (.59 seconds). Her 100m improved from 11.40 to 11.14 (.26) as well. It took her another 3 years as a professional to drop another .43 seconds for her PR.

        From 18 to 21 years of age – Rollins improved from 13.83 to 12.26 (1.57 seconds)….even though she missed a season of outdoor track at Clemson. Her 12.26 came after both an indoor and outdoor college season. An stunning feat.

        https://www.sportscredentials.com.au/docs/club.club_records_female_sh.pdf

        Clearly I’m getting more cynical as I age…

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        Chad Williams on #120443

        Comparing Rollins to Pearson is apples to oranges.

        Pearson has been coached by the same individual since she began running. Her progression should be linear and uniform.

        Rollins has switched coaches at least once, still has Lawrence listed as her coach on USATF. The coaching change has obviously worked out well for her.

        The introduction of weight training at Clemson had a big impact on her physique but nothing out of the ordinary for an elite hurdler.

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        rcfan2 on #120449

        Chad,

        Thanks for your response.

        I’m sorry, but I don’t see comparing (which also implies contrasting) the two fastest 100m hurdlers in the world as “comparing apples to oranges”. One being the current Olympic Champion, World Champion Silver Medalist and national record holder (both 100H and 100m), the other being the World Champion and American record holder. The fact that their PR’s are .02 seconds apart would seem to make them excellent candidates for comparison.

        While Sharon Hannan has coached Pearson since she was young (12 years, 8 months) – Pearson (then McLellan) was already competing in T&F. As such, she has been coached by others, albeit at a young age. I would think in the US – having just one coach throughout a career would be exceptionally rare occurrence. Having multiple coaches is the norm. Its arguable whether a single coach from age group through professional is an advantage or disadvantage.

        Rollins ran at one of the top HS programs in Florida (Miami Northwestern Senior High School). MNSH has won numerous state championships and has produced other outstanding hurdlers (including Olympian Tiffany Ross-Williams). Ironically, despite winning state and national hurdle titles – Rollins does not appear to hold any hurdle records at MNSH (MNSH Records)

        Rollins was coached by Carmen Jackson. Carmen Jackson has been extremely successful as a coach – winning 10 state titles:
        Carmen Jackson Leads Miami Northwestern Senior High To 10 State Titles.

        You’d be hard pressed to find a better HS program for hurdlers than MNSH.

        Rollin’s has run 9 of the top 1000 times in history (Top 100 100H Times[/url]) – including the 4th best time ever. Oddly, all 9 of those times were run in 2013…demonstrating how dramatic her improvement has been.

        The introduction of weight training at Clemson had a big impact on her physique but nothing out of the ordinary for an elite hurdler.

        Considering as of 2012 – she hadn’t ran a top 1000 time – I’d say her rise to elite was anything but ordinary. The changes in her physique not withstanding.

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        Derrick Brito on #120454

        As per the link above, her progression looks like this:

        Year – SB – Improvement
        2007 – 14.45
        2008 – 13.93 – .52
        2009 – 13.83 – .10
        2010 – N/A
        2011 – 12.88 – .95
        2012 – 12.70 – .18
        2013 – 12.26 – .44

        That’s far from normal by any standard, though I don’t know much about her so I won’t speculate why.

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        Chad Williams on #120457

        Rollins isn’t 30 doing this. She is 21. Peak age for women running shorter distances tends to be around 22.

        https://www.ucsur.pitt.edu/files/schulz/JofGeronSchulzCarnow1988.pdf

        I haven’t followed her career that closely(I have known of her) but changes in technique can have an enormous impact on the hurdles unlike the 100m dash. If this was the dash, I would be looking cross-eyed at this improvement.

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        rcfan2 on #120459

        Not sure how accurate some of the sources are – I’m sure some are incomplete…

        That said, the most intriguing drop to me occurred from 2009 to 2011…which included a missed season of outdoor track. I’d be curious about what type of work she did during this time. Seems unlikely that weight training (at Clemson) alone would have that dramatic of transfer.

        As a hurdle fan, Rollin’s performance at the US trials is in some ways analogous to having a former 10.7 high school male sprinter go off to college, miss a year of outdoor, and somehow come off an NCAA season at age 21 and then run .02 seconds off the world record.

        Apples, oranges or bananas…Rollin’s rise to elite has been stunning to me. I recognize the risk of speculating, and its implications. Admittedly, I felt the same way watching Caster Semenya win the 2009 World Championships as an 18 year old – running 1:55.45 and dominating a very good field of athletes at such a young age. Certainly Donkova’s record is suspect (cue neighing of a horse)… I even reserve a small amount of skepticism for Bolt 🙂

        I want to believe that Rollins was just an undiscovered or under-trained phenom. Maybe she had a legacy of injuries that were inhibiting her, with the year off allowing her to finally get healthy. As a hurdle coach, I want (need) to believe that such improvements are possible through great training and capable coaching.

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        rcfan2 on #120461

        Rollins isn’t 30 doing this. She is 21. Peak age for women running shorter distances tends to be around 22.

        https://www.ucsur.pitt.edu/files/schulz/JofGeronSchulzCarnow1988.pdf

        Chad – this study is from 1988… I think its safe to say that today (2013)…that world class female T&F athletes are not “peaking” at 22.

        Donkova was 27 when she set the record, #2 Ginka Zagorcheva was 29 when she ran her PR, #3 Enquist was 28, Pearson was 25 (and had been an international age group athlete since her teens), Devers 34, Hayes 28, etc. Oh…and Rollins at 21.

        All this can be derived from the link I provided previously – Women’s 100m Hurdles

        Rollins is an anomaly. No female hurdler has ever been that fast at 21 years of age. Prior to 2013 – someone had hurdled faster than Rollins more than a 1000 times. After 2013 – only 5 times in the history of the event (ran by just two different women) has anyone gone faster than this 21 year old. That makes my eyes cross…

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        Chad Williams on #120469

        Data is from 88 and before because of obvious reasons. The women you mention are from Bulgaria and peaking way late for speed/power events, this is NOT normal.

        Even if we were to throw in 20 more years of data, it might change the averages (slightly) but of no real significance.

        I think we see women holding peaks longer but 25 tends to the upper limit.

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        rcfan2 on #120471

        Chad,

        Data is from 88 and before because of obvious reasons

        Please take a moment to review the study you’re quoting. It appears the data they used was the peak performances of Olympic Gold Medalist from 1896-1980 – which of course includes boycotted Olympics. So the most recent data is more than 3 decades old.

        The women you mention are from Bulgaria and peaking way late for speed/power events, this is NOT normal.

        No. I gave you examples of top 6 hurdlers – 3 of which were not European.

        Let’s try some more recent data – the finalist from this years (2013) World Championship’s women’s 100m & 100H finals.

        100H
        Rollins 21
        Pearson 26
        Porter 27
        Harper 29
        Harrison 24
        Whyte 33
        Billaud 27
        Kondakova 32

        I’ll save you the trouble of doing the math – that’s an average age of 27.4. Take Rollins out of the mix – and it goes to 28.3.

        100m
        Price 26
        Ahoure 25
        Jeter 33
        Garnder 21
        Stewart 29
        Okagbare 24
        Anderson 26
        Freeman 21

        Average age – 25.6 (average age of the Medalist is 28)

        These events are not being dominated by 21-22 year old’s. If so, the NCAA Championship’s results would be superior to the World Championships & Olympics – as sprinters, hurdlers and sprint relay participants would all be at their “peak” according to your position.

        To truly peak – the athletes would have had to developed all 5 of bio-motor abilities to their maximum potential (for the event specific demands of their event). I think we now know how difficult that task is to do by the age of 21 for speed/power events.

        While I appreciate your thoughts, I guess we’ll have to “agree to disagree” 🙂

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        Chad Williams on #120476

        Unfortunately, giving me a sample of data of the entire population of all medalists does not make for a conclusion on the entire event. Also, giving me data on the average age of a medalist vs. the average age of when each of these women ran their fastest times are two different topics. So of course we disagree because you just switched the topic with inaccurate math.

        So take a look at when each of those women ran their fastest times. Then we will have a debate on the same topic. Just remember, making a conclusion from this year’s world championship only gives you the ability to conclude from that event.

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        rcfan2 on #120478

        Chad,

        I apologize for my “inaccurate math”…and for comparing “apples to oranges” earlier..and for showing you the ages at which the fastest 100 meter hurdlers were when they ran their PR’s was well beyond 21-22 years of age. It was grossly inappropriate to show you the finalist of this year’s World Championships 100m and 100H races also averaged well beyond 21-22 years of age. These facts have no merit. But clearly my biggest oversight was not giving more weight to the 1988 ground breaking study by the Department of Psychiatry and University Center of Social and Urban Research, The University of Pittsburgh that is the sole source of information you’ve cited in this thread.

        Ironically while you called me out for comparing the two fastest active 100m hurdlers in the world, again both World Champions and national record holders for their countries, as “comparing apples to oranges” because Pearson has had only one coach while Rollins has had more than one (I still don’t know who you think is at a disadvantage), you cite a 30+ year old study of Olympic 100meter (not hurdles) Gold medal winners as valid for today’s 100m female hurdlers. Go figure. It goes without saying that this vintage research trumps any current data such as the top 100 meter hurdle times (over 1000 races) I shared with you. After all, it only includes the athlete’s birth date and date of the race – which makes determining the the athlete’s age at the time they ran their PR exact (I gave you the top six athlete’s as examples which you incorrectly attributed to all being Bulgarians). The data is all there – import it into a spreadsheet and calculate the exact age for each performance. Let me know what the average age is. My money is far north of 21…

        The data from the study you cited is from 1896-1980. That would cover multiple world wars & multiple boycotted Olympics. Likewise, it covers an era before there was women’s high school and college track programs (the first NCAA women’s championship was held in 1982). Much of this was also before Title IX, before college scholarships for female athletes, and well before women could even consider a post collegiate/professional career in T&F similar to what the men of that period enjoyed. Exactly how many women of the era covered in this study could have even considered competing at age 25-30+ like we see today? If I have to explain the implications of this to you, the point is already lost.

        My initial posts and comments had nothing to do with “linear” development (I have no idea where that came from) – but the rate of change for Rollins. It’s not the shape of the line – it’s the slope of the line! Again, the point was lost.

        I’m done here…

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        Chad Williams on #120484

        Bringing hard data soon. Will run a regression equation quadratically on Rollins to see which model fits best. Don’t really expect the “linear” data to fit because as age increases and times approach their limit, linear equations are a wash.

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        Derrick Brito on #120486

        Bringing hard data soon. Will run a regression equation quadratically on Rollins to see which model fits best. Don’t really expect the “linear” data to fit because as age increases and times approach their limit, linear equations are a wash.

        Not sure where this linear idea came from. rcfan2 never mentioned it and I know I have stated multiple times on this site that improvement rates follow an exponential decay model. However, I don’t think a quadratic model will be much more accurate than a linear model in Rollins’ case. That’s precisely the problem. I didn’t run the data though so let us know what you find.

        I want to believe that Rollins was just an undiscovered or under-trained phenom. Maybe she had a legacy of injuries that were inhibiting her, with the year off allowing her to finally get healthy. As a hurdle coach, I want (need) to believe that such improvements are possible through great training and capable coaching.

        I have no such need, but I did do some more research on her. In her races prior to 2013 (which are surprisingly hard to find), she looks slow by comparison. Also her athletic.net profile states she has run 23.6 in the 200 and has been slower since her freshman year. Depending on her speed endurance, it’s fully plausible that her speed could be at 11.3 or better by now. I think there may be something to the idea that injuries or other factors were holding back her speed, even if her hurdle technique was improving.

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